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KMID : 0613620180380020009
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Health Social Welfare Review
2018 Volume.38 No. 2 p.9 ~ p.41
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Low Fertility, Population Momentum, and Future Demographic Prospects of South Korea
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Woo Hae-Bong
Han Jeong-Lim
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Abstract
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Despite concerns on low fertility, relatively little attention has been paid to long-term demographic consequences of low fertility in South Korea. Using stable population models, this study explores the long term effects of low fertility and
population momentum on population decline and population aging. First, South Korea has entered the negative population momentum stage, indicating that, despite an instantaneous rise to the replacement-level fertility, the ultimate population
declines due to the current age distribution. Further, stable population simulations show that gradual transitions to the replacement-level fertility causes significant reductions in population size. Second, since population momentum is closely related to aging, South Korea is expected to face severe aging as well as population decline. Given that the stable population models in this study assume constant mortality schedules over time and recent mortality improvement concentrates in old age, future demographic aging would be more severe. Finally, population aging in South Korea
is a difficult issue since population aging is simultaneously driven by the shrinking working-age population as well as the rising number of the elderly, indicating that South Korea needs fundamental changes in policy directions beyond population growth paradigm.
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KEYWORD
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Low Fertility, Momentum, Population Decline, Population Aging
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